Clark County's I-5 Bridge Crisis: $14.4 Billion & 20 Years of Disruption
by Cassandra Marks
Clark County's I-5 Bridge Crisis: $14.4 Billion & 20 Years of Disruption
The honest update on the I-5 bridge replacement — tolls, the hidden estimate scandal, and the $14.4B cost explosion changing Vancouver forever.
Is the I-5 bridge being replaced? Yes. Cassandra Marks (Realtor Cas) breaks down the 2026 update on the Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) program. Key facts: The official cost has surged to $14.4 billion, construction is set for 2028–2045 (nearly 20 years), and pre-completion tolls will begin on the existing bridge as early as 2027. This guide covers the project's 108-year history, the CRC failure, the hidden internal estimate that sat in a file for months, the full toll math, and the financial impact on Clark County residents.
▶️ Watch: The Full I-5 Bridge Crisis Breakdown with Realtor Cas
The I-5 bridge was built in 1917. Now, it's going to cost $14.4 billion to replace it — and you're going to start paying tolls on it by 2027. Hi, my name is Cassandra Marks, also known as Realtor Cas, and I'm a farmer with a wee little real estate problem.
As a transplant myself, I want to give you a complete, honest picture of what this project means for the people who live, work, and commute in Clark County. If you're evaluating the cost of living in Vancouver, WA vs Portland, OR, this bridge project is a central part of that equation.
Why Replacing This Bridge Has Taken Over 100 Years
Before 1917, crossing the Columbia River between Vancouver and Portland meant using a ferry. In winter, ice build-up made it incredibly dangerous. The turning point came in 1905, when nearly 2,000 people from Vancouver tried to cross for the Lewis and Clark Centennial World's Fair and nearly swamped the ferry system. Vancouver's mayor famously said that day: "We need a bridge."
It took over a decade of political fights, bond measures, and a governor's veto to make it happen.
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Valentine's Day, 1917
The Interstate Bridge opened on February 14th. 40,000–50,000 people showed up and the Columbian called it the greatest day in Vancouver's history. A 5-cent toll paid off the bond in just 12 years.
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A Second Span in 1958
The original bridge handled all traffic for 65 years. By the late 1940s it carried 30,000+ vehicles daily. The second southbound span opened in 1958 when I-5 was created and traffic exploded.
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Functionally Obsolete Today
The northbound span is 108 years old. The southbound span is 67. Both are rated functionally obsolete. The foundations are timber piles in sandy soil — the same type that failed in the 1964 Alaska earthquakes.
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143,000 Vehicles Every Weekday
This bridge carries 2 million people back and forth across the Columbia. 143,000 vehicles cross it every single weekday. This is the most critical transportation corridor in the Pacific Northwest.
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The Seismic Risk: The bridge foundations are timber piles in sandy soil — the same type that failed during the 1964 Alaska earthquakes. According to USGS data, we are way overdue for a major seismic event in this region. That's not a hypothetical. It's the clock this project is racing against.
The Planning Failure
The First Attempt: How $175 Million Simply Disappeared
In 2005, both states finally got serious with the Columbia River Crossing (CRC) project — a new bridge, light rail into Vancouver, rebuilt interchanges, tons of federal support. There was real momentum.
Over nine years, they spent $175 million. $105 million alone went to consultants, studies, and environmental impact statements. In 2011, the federal government gave it a green light. Then in 2013, the Washington State Senate killed it. The sticking point: they didn't want Portland's MAX Light Rail crossing into Washington. Without Washington's funding commitment, the whole thing collapsed.
Ten years, $175 million, zero bridges replaced, zero new lanes. The region started over — a decade older and a decade closer to the next earthquake.
$175MSunk Costs
9 yrsPlanning Time
0Lanes Added
0Bridges Replaced
The Current Crisis
The Cost Explosion
The Second Attempt: The $14.4 Billion Reality Check
In 2019, both states formally launched the Interstate Bridge Replacement (IBR) program. Same fundamental problems, same two states, same basic scope. But a decade of delay comes with a massive price tag.
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2020: Initial Estimate — $3.3 to $4.8 Billion
The first public cost estimate for the IBR program. Ambitious but not unreasonable for a major river crossing with light rail extension.
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Late 2022: Updated to $5–$7.5 Billion
The estimate nearly doubled in two years, driven by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and expanding scope. A warning sign that most people missed.
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March 17, 2026: Official Estimate — $14.4 Billion
A 140% increase from the 2022 estimate. More than the state of Washington spends on its entire transportation budget in a typical 2-year cycle. Both governors immediately abandoned the plan to complete the full project at once.
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140% Cost Increase
From $7.5B in 2022 to $14.4B in 2026. That is not an adjustment — that is a fundamental reckoning with what this project actually costs.
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Phased Construction
Governors proposed starting with just the bridge and light rail extension at $7.65B, deferring all highway interchange rebuilds until more funding can be found.
⚠️ Accountability
The Accountability Problem
The Hidden Estimate: $13.6 Billion Sat in a File for Months
Here is the part of this story that should make every Clark County resident angry — and it's the detail that got buried in the news coverage of the cost announcement.
⚠️ What Actually Happened
In late 2025, documents obtained through a public records request revealed that an internal draft estimate of $13.6 billion had been sitting in a file since August 2025. It was not disclosed to the public. It was not disclosed to the state legislature — the same body being asked to vote on the project.
The cost had essentially doubled from the last public number, and the project team had sat on it for months. The official $14.4 billion figure wasn't released until March 17, 2026 — roughly seven months after the internal estimate was complete.
This isn't just a cost problem. It's a transparency problem. The people being asked to fund this project and live through 20 years of construction deserved to know what it actually cost before their representatives voted on it.
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Why this matters: Infrastructure projects don't fail just because of cost overruns. They fail because the people responsible for them don't level with the public at every step. The CRC cost $175 million and produced nothing. The IBR is now at $14.4 billion with a seven-month delay in disclosing its own internal estimates. Clark County residents have every right to demand better accountability.
Source:Public Records Request — Documents obtained late 2025, released publicly March 2026
The Timeline
Nearly 20 Years of Active Construction (2028–2045)
Construction is expected to begin in 2028, and the full program could stretch to 2045. That is nearly 20 years of active disruption on the most critical transportation corridor in the Pacific Northwest.
During construction, freeway traffic through the project area will be rerouted five separate times as old structures come down and new ones go up. This is not a brief inconvenience. It's a multi-decade feature of life in this corridor.
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5 Traffic Reroutings
Freeway traffic will be rerouted five separate times as old structures come down and new ones go up. Each rerouting adds time, confusion, and wear to the surrounding road network.
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2028–2045
If you're moving to Clark County today, you are signing up for the bridge being a construction zone for most of the next two decades. That is the honest reality to factor into your decision.
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Phase 1: Bridge + Light Rail
Due to cost, governors proposed starting with only the new river crossing and the light rail extension at $7.65B. All highway interchange rebuilds are deferred pending additional funding.
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A Planning Decision, Not a Commute
Once construction begins, Portland stops being a spontaneous destination and becomes a planning decision. Lane restrictions, delays, and detours will be the normal condition — not the exception.
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If you're relocating to Clark County: Factor this into where specifically you want to live. Proximity to the I-205 corridor becomes a real consideration. If you cross this bridge regularly for work or leisure, moving to Vancouver is still a great choice — but go in with accurate expectations about the next 5, 10, and 20 years on the transportation front.
The Financial Impact
💵 Toll Breakdown
The Tolls — Math Class
What You'll Actually Pay: The Complete Numbers Starting 2027
The tolls are coming sooner than most people realize. Pre-completion tolling is expected to begin on the existing I-5 bridge as early as 2027 — before the new bridge is built, before construction has meaningfully begun. You will start paying tolls to cross the bridge that's already there.
The Official Studied Rate Range
The IBR program's official toll scenario study ranges from $1.55 to $4.70 per crossing with variable pricing by time of day. Peak commuter hours get the highest rates. These rates were modeled before the cost estimate jumped from $6 billion to $14.4 billion.
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A warning from engineers: Some analysis and civil engineering experts have publicly warned that peak tolls could potentially reach $20 per crossing if project costs continue to climb and other funding sources fall short. These are studied rates — the final numbers will be higher once the full $14.4B funding gap is reckoned with.
The Math on Even the Modest Scenario
Commuter Type
Crossings / Week
At $4.70/crossing
Annual Cost
5-Day Portland Commuter
10 (round trip)
$47/week · $188/month
~$2,256/yr
Family (4 Portland trips/month)
8–10 trips
$37–$47/month
$450–$565/yr
Leisure crossings only (2–3×/month)
4–6/month
$19–$28/month
$225–$340/yr
⚠️ Worst-Case: $20/crossing commuter
10 (round trip)
$200/week · $800/month
~$9,600/yr
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The bigger picture: A commuter already paying Oregon income taxes (~$7,500–$9,000/yr) on their Portland wages is now adding $2,200–$9,600/yr in tolls on top of that. For full-time commuters, the total financial picture of living in Vancouver while working in Portland is more complex than most people think. See our full breakdown of Washington vs. Oregon taxes.
📊 The Data
The Diversion Problem
The 77% Problem: Why Avoiding the Toll Won't Help Either
When tolls arrive, a lot of people will try to avoid them by switching to I-205. Here's the hard data on why that strategy hurts everyone — including the people who choose to avoid the toll.
77%
A 2012 survey found that 77% of Clark County drivers said they would divert to I-205 if I-5 started charging tolls.
If even half of those drivers follow through, I-205 absorbs that volume on top of all the existing construction-era overflow. The free crossing gets slower, less reliable, and more congested for everyone. Whether you pay the toll or go around it, you're paying — either in dollars or in time.
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The I-205 pressure valve has limits: The Glenn Jackson Bridge is 7 miles east, 4 lanes in each direction. It flows well under normal conditions. But it was not built to absorb I-5's overflow. During construction phases, expect it to run near capacity almost every single day. When I-5 backs up, all those displaced drivers funnel onto 205 and it bogs down fast.
The Alternatives
Why There Is No Real Substitute for I-5
People always ask: what are your other options when I-5 and I-205 are both backed up? Here's the honest answer.
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Bridge of the Gods (Cascade Locks)
Beautiful drive — seriously, take it on a weekend. But it's 40 miles east of Vancouver just to reach it, then 40 more miles west on 84 back to Portland. That's 90 minutes to 2 hours one way on a good day. Not a commute option.
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Lewis and Clark Bridge (Longview)
50 miles northwest of Vancouver, then 50 more miles on a two-lane highway back to Portland. 2+ hours each way. Designed by the same engineer as the Golden Gate Bridge — a great trivia fact that won't help you get to work.
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The Bottom Line
There is no real substitute for I-5 and I-205. When I-5 construction backs things up, the pain lands entirely on I-205 — and it has its limits. That is the one valve the entire metro depends on.
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Live Closer to I-205
If you're choosing where to live in Clark County, factor I-205 proximity into your decision. Camas, east Vancouver, and communities near the 205 corridor will be under less strain than those who depend entirely on the I-5 crossing. TripCheck (ODOT) shows real-time overflow impacts.
What It Means for You
Community Impact
Moving to Clark County? Here's What to Know
This isn't just a commuter problem. Portland is Clark County's backyard. The bridge isn't just about people driving to work — it's about everyone in Clark County who has a life south of the river. Blazers games, concerts, Timbers matches, OHSU for major medical, PDX airport. Right now, all of that is 20–30 minutes away. That changes once construction begins in 2028.
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Budget for Tolls Starting 2027
If you cross the bridge regularly for work or leisure, budget conservatively starting 2027. Rates are likely to increase over time as project costs are paid down — the $14.4B gap has to close somehow.
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Construction Starts 2028
Lane restrictions and delays starting in 2028 and running potentially through the mid-2040s are not a brief inconvenience. They are an ongoing feature of life in this corridor for the next two decades.
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Factor in I-205 Proximity
Know that I-205 is your pressure valve and it's going to be under increasing pressure. Where you specifically choose to live in Clark County matters. Closer to 205 reduces your dependence on the I-5 construction corridor.
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Clark County Is Still a Great Choice
Quality of life is real. Home prices are meaningfully lower than Portland. Washington's tax advantages for retirees and Washington-based workers are significant. Go in with eyes open — and Clark County is a wonderful place to live.
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If you work in Portland: There's an important conversation about Oregon income tax that most people get wrong. Living in Washington doesn't exempt you from Oregon income tax on wages earned in Oregon. Get the full picture before you make your move — I have a complete breakdown of WA vs OR taxes here, including how hybrid work changes the math.
Whether you're relocating from out of state, weighing the Portland commute math, or just trying to figure out if Vancouver is right for you — I'm here to help with honest, complete guidance.
REALTOR® · REAL Broker · Licensed in WA & OR · 🏆 Elite Agent · Circle of Excellence Diamond Platinum Member
⭐ 5.0Rating
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110+Homes Sold
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Farmer, mother of chickens, and the best cluckin' agent in SW Washington. Cassandra Marks is the team lead of the Realtor Cas RE Group and an award-winning REALTOR® with REAL Broker — helping families, retirees, and relocators find home in Vancouver, WA, Clark County, and Portland, OR.
Active in real estate since 2011, licensed since 2018, with 5 years of hands-on construction experience. As a transplant herself, Cassandra brings genuine first-hand knowledge of what it means to navigate this market and this region.
