2024 Housing Market Flatlines in Vancouver, WA: Insights and 2025 Outlook from a Local Realtor

by Cassandra Marks

2024 Housing Market Flatlines in Vancouver, WA: Insights and 2025 Outlook from a Local Realtor

Checking predictions against reality, home prices, sales volume, mortgage rates, and what's likely ahead.

📊 2024 Recap 🔮 2025 Outlook 🏦 Rates Above 7%

By Cassandra Marks (Realtor Cas) · Published February 1, 2025 · Updated September 2026 · 7 min read

📌 Direct Answer — How Did the 2024 Vancouver, WA Housing Market Actually Perform?

Home prices in Southwest Washington rose 2.9% in 2024, pushing the average home price in Vancouver, WA to $540,000 by December, roughly in line with predictions. Sales volume ticked up (8.6% more homes sold locally) but inventory remained tight due to the "lock-in effect" of homeowners holding sub-5% mortgage rates. Mortgage rates stayed above 7% all year despite three Fed rate cuts. At the time, the 2025 outlook called for 3–4% appreciation and rates holding roughly flat around 7%. See the update below for how that outlook actually played out.

Cassandra Marks - REALTOR®, Realtor Cas, Vancouver WA & Clark County | View full bio & credentials →

As we ring in 2025, it's that time again to take a step back, put on our real estate expert hats (or, in my case, a farmer's hat with a real estate problem), and revisit the predictions made about the 2024 housing market in Vancouver, Washington. It's like checking in on your New Year's resolutions, did we hit the mark, or did we miss the target completely? And more importantly, what do we think the 2025 market has in store for buyers, sellers, and curious real estate enthusiasts like yourself?

Let's dive into the numbers, predictions, and trends that shaped 2024. Grab your coffee, and let's go!

📈 Home Values

2024 Housing Market: The Year of Predictions, Surprises, and Keeping It Real

2024 started off with high hopes and hefty predictions about the housing market. Experts across the nation predicted a variety of trends: modest home price growth, a slight increase in sales, and, hopefully, some relief on those sky-high mortgage interest rates. I, your friendly local real estate expert (a.k.a. Realtor Cas), had my own thoughts on how things would unfold in Southwest Washington. And guess what? I was kind of right… but also not.

Home Values: How Did We Do?

First things first, let's talk about home prices. Everyone wants to know how much equity they gained or lost in 2024. Was this the year of skyrocketing values, or did we hit a plateau?

According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, we were looking at a moderate price increase of about 2% year-over-year. My prediction? A little more optimistic, with a 3-4% increase. So, what actually happened? Well, despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in 2024, we ended the year with higher interest rates than we started with. But, surprise, surprise, home prices didn't follow suit and decline.

The national median home price actually saw a 3.9% increase, and here in Southwest Washington, we experienced a 2.9% appreciation. That means the average home price in Vancouver WA climbed to $540,000 by December 2024, an increase that reflects growing demand. Home values in Vancouver WA remained resilient despite high mortgage rates, echoing broader real estate trends across the region.

What about the "big players"? Well, Redfin and Realtor.com, and real estate platforms like Zillow, which all offer real-time listings and market data, predicted a decline of 1% and 1.7%, respectively, but, as we all know, they've been off the mark for the last two years. And Fannie Mae? They predicted a 2.4% increase, and we ended up with 2.9%. It's safe to say they all missed the mark in one way or another, but at least I'm a little closer to the mark than those giant real estate giants!

Looking ahead to 2025, economists were predicting mild home appreciation, somewhere between 1.5% and 4.9%. Zillow forecast 2.6% growth, while Realtor.com was a bit more bullish with a 3.7% increase. I personally leaned toward a solid 3-4% increase, especially with demand still high, rates above 7%, and a growing influx of people moving northward due to rising temperatures and natural disasters affecting other areas.

🔄 How Did the Outlook Hold Up?

Update: How Did the 2025 Outlook Actually Hold Up?

Since this article was first published, quite a bit of time has passed, so in the spirit of the "predictions vs. reality" format above, here's an honest check-in as of September 2026.

Home prices: The 2025 outlook called for 3–4% appreciation. What actually happened was closer to flat-to-slightly-down: the median sale price in Vancouver, WA sits around $494,500 as of September 2026, essentially in the same range as, or a touch below, where 2024 ended. So this prediction ran a bit optimistic — the market cooled more than expected rather than continuing to climb.

Mortgage rates: The prediction was rates holding flat around 7%. Rates have actually eased slightly, sitting around 6.7–6.8% for a 30-year fixed loan as of September 2026 — close to the prediction, just a bit more favorable than expected.

Inventory and the lock-in effect: This part held up well. The lock-in effect described in this article is still a major factor shaping the market, and inventory remains tighter than pre-pandemic norms.

📊

For the most current, fully up-to-date breakdown of the Vancouver, WA market, see our Is the Housing Market Crashing in Vancouver, WA? article, which we keep updated with the latest verified figures.

🏠 Sales Volume

Home Sales Volume: More Homes for Sale, But Not Enough

Now, let's talk about sales volume. Were we going to see more homes sold in 2024? The experts, including Lawrence Yun and others, predicted that we would see around 4 million homes sold nationally. I was a bit more optimistic and thought we'd see an uptick, but nothing huge.

Guess what? We ended up with about 4.15 million units sold, an increase, but not enough to fill the demand. Here in Southwest Washington, the inventory was up 99.2% in listings year-over-year, with 8.6% more homes sold. But, here's the kicker: the inventory is still low compared to pre-recession levels. So, we're still facing that tight inventory problem that's been plaguing the market for years now.

Why? A significant factor is that over 50% of homeowners with mortgages have interest rates below 5%, and many simply can't stomach the idea of selling and trading their low-rate mortgage for a higher one. This has created a bit of a "lock-in" effect.

Looking ahead to 2025, we were expecting sales to climb slightly, with predictions ranging from 4.0 to 4.47 million units. With the Baby Boomer generation beginning to downsize (they're hitting that 65+ age bracket), we expected a bit more inventory to hit the market, which could help. My sense at the time was that we were still looking at an inventory crisis persisting until 2030-2035.

🏦 Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Interest Rates: The Never-Ending Rollercoaster

Ah, mortgage rates, the topic that's been a hot-button issue for the last couple of years. In 2023, rates ended the year around 6.61%. Experts were all predicting that rates would stay below 7% in 2024, with some even hoping for a drop back below 6%. As we all know by now, those predictions didn't quite pan out.

By the end of 2024, we were still hovering above 7%. Despite the Federal Reserve's three rate cuts, mortgage rates remained stubbornly high. Why? Well, the law of supply and demand is real, my friends. People still need homes, and the lack of inventory is keeping those rates elevated. You might've been hoping for a better drop, but unfortunately, the affordability issues persist.

My prediction at the time was that we'd see rates stay flat around 7% through 2025. As the update above notes, rates actually eased a bit more than that, into the high-6% range by late 2026.

💵 Affordability

Home Affordability: Can We Still Afford It?

Let's talk about affordability, because let's face it, we all want to know if we're going to be able to afford that dream home anytime soon.

The typical entry-level home in the Vancouver-Portland market in 2024 was around $450,000. But here's the kicker: as interest rates rise, buying power drops. For example, if you're approved for a $450,000 home at a 6% interest rate and the rate jumps to 7%, your buying power decreases by about $40,000. If rates climb to 8%, as we saw briefly in October 2023, you're down another $40,000 in buying power. So, affordability was getting squeezed.

New construction offered some relief during this period, with builders offering incentives to attract buyers, some up to $30,000, to help bring effective interest rates back down closer to 5% or 6%. If you're in the market for a new home, it's still worth asking builders what current incentives look like, and working with a realtor who knows the ropes.

🔮 The Original 2025 Outlook

Looking Ahead to 2025: What I Predicted at the Time

Here's what I predicted back in early 2025, kept as originally written for the record (see the update section above for how these actually played out):

Home Prices: Average appreciation hovering around 3-4% in 2025 — mild growth, nothing too extreme.
Sales Volume: More homes hitting the market as buyers get fed up waiting for rates to drop, especially as Baby Boomers start downsizing.
Interest Rates: Rates staying flat around 7% for the foreseeable future.
Buyer Behavior: Buyers continuing to be picky, demanding move-in-ready homes and thorough inspections, with multiple offers still happening but only for well-priced homes.
Negotiations: Buyers continuing to have leverage, especially against sellers pricing too high.

✅ Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts on the Housing Market in Vancouver, WA

The 2024 housing market in Vancouver, WA was full of surprises and slight disappointments. While some predictions fell short, others were spot on, and looking back now, the overall picture cooled a bit more than expected. For the current state of the Vancouver WA real estate market, our regularly updated market article has the latest figures.

If you're thinking about buying or selling, reach out! As a local real estate expert with years of experience, I can help you navigate the market, whether you're relocating to the area, downsizing, or just looking for that perfect home.

Visit our website today to get started on your journey to homeownership!

Frequently Asked Questions

Vancouver, WA Housing Market — Common Questions Answered

Are housing prices dropping in Vancouver?

Not significantly. As of early 2025, the median listing price was around $550,000, with modest year-over-year growth at that time. Since then, prices have held roughly flat to slightly down — see our current market update for the latest figures.

Is Vancouver, WA a buyers or sellers market?

Vancouver has trended toward a more balanced market over the past couple of years. Inventory has increased and competition has eased compared to the 2021-2022 peak, giving buyers more negotiating power than before.

Is there a housing shortage in Vancouver WA?

Yes, Vancouver has experienced a persistent housing shortage, especially in the affordable and rental markets, as demand has outpaced supply due to steady in-migration and slower construction.

How many offers are houses getting in Vancouver, WA?

Well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods can still receive multiple offers, but bidding wars are far less intense than during the pandemic boom. Homes generally take longer to sell than they did in 2021-2022.

Why is Vancouver getting so expensive?

Vancouver's rising housing costs are driven by strong demand, limited inventory, and its proximity to Portland without Oregon's income tax on Oregon-sourced wages. Its popularity with remote workers, retirees, and commuters keeps pressure on prices, along with slow development relative to demand.

Where is the best place to live in Vancouver, WA?

Some of the most popular neighborhoods include Felida, Fisher's Landing, Cascade Park, and North Image. These areas are known for good schools, safety, and community amenities, each offering a different balance of suburban comfort and accessibility.

What is the housing crisis in Vancouver?

The housing crisis in Vancouver stems from a combination of high demand, limited new construction, and rising costs. Many local residents are being priced out of both ownership and rental markets, affecting first-time buyers, low- to moderate-income families, and long-time renters most severely.

Why is Vancouver, Washington so popular?

Vancouver offers scenic views, a walkable riverfront, no personal income tax for the vast majority of residents, and a lower cost of living compared to nearby Portland. It's family-friendly, business-friendly, and full of outdoor recreation opportunities.

Why are people moving out of Vancouver?

Some residents leave Vancouver due to rising home prices, higher rents, and increased traffic. Others seek more space, lower costs, or job opportunities elsewhere. While Vancouver is growing overall, affordability concerns are prompting some to relocate.

What are the cons of living in Vancouver, Washington?

Vancouver faces rising housing costs, a growing homeless population, and increasing traffic congestion. The real estate market remains competitive in desirable neighborhoods, and rental availability stays tight. Some residents feel the pace of growth is outstripping infrastructure and local services.

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Cassandra Marks

+1(503) 884-2387

Realtor, Licensed in OR & WA License ID: 201225764