Housing Reality Check: '23 Recap & Bold '24 Vancouver WA Housing Market Predictions

by Cassandra Marks

Housing Reality Check: '23 Recap & Bold '24 Vancouver WA Housing Market Predictions

A look back at 2023's numbers and a real estate investor's bold predictions for what 2024 had in store.

📊 2023 Recap 🔮 2024 Predictions 🏦 Mortgage Rate Outlook

By Cassandra Marks (Realtor Cas) · Published January 20, 2024 · 6 min read

🕰️

Historical snapshot: This post was originally published in January 2024 and reflects predictions made at that time based on 2023 market data. It's preserved here as a record of that market moment, not as current advice. For up-to-date market conditions, see our latest Vancouver WA housing market update.

📌 Direct Answer — What Were the 2024 Predictions for Vancouver, WA?

Looking back at 2023: SW Washington saw 8.4% home price appreciation despite interest rates peaking above 8%, while home sales dropped 28.2% due to the "lock-in effect" of homeowners holding onto sub-5% mortgage rates. For 2024, the prediction was 4–6% average appreciation, increased home sales as rates settled and baby boomers downsized, flat interest rates through the year, more buyer pickiness post-pandemic, and more negotiating leverage for buyers on inspections, repairs, and closing costs.

Cassandra Marks - REALTOR®, Realtor Cas, Vancouver WA & Clark County | View full bio & credentials →

Greetings, fellow home seekers and property enthusiasts! I'm Cassandra Marks, also known as Realtor Cas, your trusted guide to all things SW Washington, Clark County, Vancouver, and even Portland. Today, let's embark on a journey into the future as we delve into the 2023 final numbers and make bold predictions for the intriguing landscape of the 2024 housing market. Now, before we get too carried away, a few disclaimers, I may not be an economist, but my experience as a real estate investor since 2011 provides valuable insights into the trends shaping our local market.

📈 Home Prices

2023 Home Price Recap & 2024 Predictions for Vancouver, WA

The burning question on everyone's mind, home prices. In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicted flat appreciation year over year (YOY), and surprisingly, that's not far from the truth. Despite a peak of 8% interest rates in October, the national median home price saw a 4% YOY increase. In SW Washington, we experienced an even more impressive 8.4% appreciation.

Looking ahead to 2024, housing economists don't foresee drastic changes. Redfin predicts a 1.7% decline, while Fannie Mae expects a bullish 2.4% increase. Demand remains high, and with rates settling around 6%, a 4% YOY appreciation is likely, maintaining the historical trend.

🏠 Home Sales

2023 Home Sales Recap & 2024 Predictions

In 2023, Lawrence Yun predicted a 6.8% decrease in home sales, but the reality was a nationwide drop of 14.5% and a staggering 28.2% in SW WA. Why? The lock-in effect, as over 80% of current mortgage holders enjoy rates below 5%.

Looking to 2024, various sources offer different outlooks. Realtor.com anticipates a 13.2% increase in home sales, but this may not meet the market demand. The aging baby boomer population, with 10,000 turning 65 daily until 2030, will impact downsizing trends. A foreseeable inventory crisis until 2030-2035 may lead to a surplus, but in 2024, inventory levels could marginally increase without substantial rate drops.

🏦 Mortgage Rates

2023 Mortgage Rate Recap & 2024 Predictions

Mortgage rates, a hot topic throughout 2023, saw predictions by Lawrence Yun for rates closer to 5%. Despite starting at 6.42%, rates peaked at over 8% in October, resulting in a 6.61% year-end close.

For 2024, economists expected rates to remain below 7%, providing increased affordability. Affordability is crucial, especially with entry-level homes around $425,000 in the Vancouver/PDX market. A rise from 6% to 7% decreases buying power by 9%, emphasizing the significance of rate stability. While resale interest rates weren't expected to drop below 6%, new home builders were expected to offer incentives to access lower rates.

🔮 The Predictions

My Predictions for 2024

Average appreciation: 4–6%.
Increased home sales due to lower rates and baby boomers downsizing.
Flat interest rates throughout the year.
Pandemic-driven buyer pickiness regarding homes.
Buyer leverage in negotiations, with a focus on inspections, repairs, and seller-paid closing costs.

As a local expert with boots on the ground, I encourage you to reach out for insights tailored to specific neighborhoods. Whether it's the vibrant downtown Vancouver or emerging markets like Washougal or Ridgefield, I'm here to guide you. Let's navigate the 2024 housing market together, and who knows, when we reconvene in 2025, the market might surprise us, but my crystal ball tells me otherwise. Happy house hunting!

Frequently Asked Questions

Vancouver, WA Housing Market — Common Questions Answered

Are housing prices dropping in Vancouver?

Housing prices in Vancouver, WA have remained relatively stable in 2024, though certain neighborhoods have seen slight dips due to rising interest rates and affordability challenges.

Is Vancouver, WA up and coming?

Yes, Vancouver continues to grow in popularity due to its tax benefits, proximity to Portland, access to nature, and revitalized downtown and waterfront areas.

Are home prices expected to rise or fall in 2025?

Experts anticipate moderate price growth in 2025 as interest rates stabilize and inventory remains tight, especially in desirable areas of Vancouver.

Is now a good time to buy a house in Vancouver?

If you're planning to stay long-term, now can be a good time to buy. While prices are high, buying before interest rates rise further, or before demand spikes, can be beneficial.

What is the housing market outlook for 2025 in Vancouver?

The 2025 outlook shows modest growth with continued competition for homes in well-connected, family-friendly neighborhoods. Inventory is expected to remain low.

Why is Vancouver getting so expensive?

Vancouver's popularity has grown due to no state income tax, proximity to Portland, outdoor amenities, and ongoing development, driving demand and prices upward.

Are home prices dropping in Vancouver, Washington?

While prices aren't dropping significantly, they've cooled slightly in 2024 compared to previous years, offering more negotiating power for buyers.

Is moving to Vancouver, WA a good idea?

Yes, Vancouver offers a mix of urban and suburban living, lower taxes than Oregon, and excellent access to recreation, healthcare, and education.

What is replacing Beaches in Vancouver, WA?

Beaches Restaurant closed in 2024, and a new waterfront dining concept is reportedly planned, although official announcements on the replacement are pending.

Is Vancouver in a housing crisis?

Like many growing cities, Vancouver is experiencing a housing shortage, particularly in affordable and middle-market homes, which contributes to rising costs.

Want the Current Market Picture?

Sign up for my monthly newsletter to receive expert advice, important local updates, and insider knowledge on the best ways to thrive in this unique region. Whether you're buying, selling, or simply curious about life in the Pacific Northwest, I've got you covered.

Join My Newsletter See the Latest Market Update

GET MORE INFORMATION

Cassandra Marks

+1(503) 884-2387

Realtor, Licensed in OR & WA License ID: 201225764