Housing Reality Check: '23 Recap & Bold '24 Vancouver WA Housing Market Predictions

Greetings, fellow home seekers and property enthusiasts! I'm Cassandra Marks, also known as Realtor Cas, your trusted guide to all things SW Washington, Clark County, Vancouver, and even Portland. Today, let's embark on a journey into the future as we delve into the 2023 final numbers and make bold predictions for the intriguing landscape of the 2024 housing market. Now, before we get too carried away, a few disclaimers – I may not be an economist, but my experience as a real estate investor since 2011 provides valuable insights into the trends shaping our local market.

2023 Housing Market Recap for Vancouver, WA

Home Price Predictions:

The burning question on everyone's mind – home prices. In 2023, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicted flat appreciation year over year (YOY), and surprisingly, that's not far from the truth. Despite a peak of 8% interest rates in October, the national median home price saw a 4% YOY increase. In SW Washington, we experienced an even more impressive 8.4% appreciation. Looking ahead to 2024, housing economists don't foresee drastic changes. Redfin predicts a 1.7% decline, while Fannie Mae expects a bullish 2.4% increase. Demand remains high, and with rates settling around 6%, a 4% YOY appreciation is likely, maintaining the historical trend.

Home Price Predictions for 2024: Vancouver’s Outlook

Home Sales Predictions:

In 2023, Lawrence Yun predicted a 6.8% decrease in home sales, but the reality was a nationwide drop of 14.5% and a staggering 28.2% in SW WA. Why? The lock-in effect, as over 80% of current mortgage holders enjoy rates below 5%. Looking to 2024, various sources offer different outlooks. Realtor.com anticipates a 13.2% increase in home sales, but this may not meet the market demand. The aging baby boomer population, with 10,000 turning 65 daily until 2030, will impact downsizing trends. A foreseeable inventory crisis until 2030-2035 may lead to a surplus, but in 2024, inventory levels could marginally increase without substantial rate drops.

What to Expect in Vancouver, WA Real Estate in 2024

Mortgage Rate Predictions:

Mortgage rates, a hot topic throughout 2023, saw predictions by Lawrence Yun for rates closer to 5%. Despite starting at 6.42%, rates peaked at over 8% in October, resulting in a 6.61% year-end close. For 2024, economists expect rates to remain below 7%, providing increased affordability. Affordability is crucial, especially with entry-level homes around $425,000 in the Vancouver/PDX market. A rise from 6% to 7% decreases buying power by 9%, emphasizing the significance of rate stability. While resale interest rates may not drop below 6%, new home builders may offer incentives to access lower rates.

Mortgage Rates in 2024: Impact on Vancouver, WA Buyers

My Predictions for 2024:

1. Average appreciation: 4-6%.
2. Increased home sales due to lower rates and baby boomers downsizing.
3. Flat interest rates throughout the year.
4. Pandemic-driven buyer pickiness regarding homes.
5. Buyer leverage in negotiations, with a focus on inspections, repairs, and seller-paid closing costs.

As a local expert with boots on the ground, I encourage you to reach out for insights tailored to specific neighborhoods. Whether it's the vibrant downtown Vancouver or emerging markets like Washougal or Ridgefield, I'm here to guide you. Let's navigate the 2024 housing market together, and who knows, when we reconvene in 2025, the market might surprise us, but my crystal ball tells me otherwise. Happy house hunting!

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Frequently Asked Questions

Are housing prices dropping in Vancouver?
Housing prices in Vancouver, WA have remained relatively stable in 2024, though certain neighborhoods have seen slight dips due to rising interest rates and affordability challenges.

Is Vancouver, WA up and coming?
Yes, Vancouver continues to grow in popularity due to its tax benefits, proximity to Portland, access to nature, and revitalized downtown and waterfront areas.

Are home prices expected to rise or fall in 2025?
Experts anticipate moderate price growth in 2025 as interest rates stabilize and inventory remains tight, especially in desirable areas of Vancouver.

Is now a good time to buy a house in Vancouver?
If you're planning to stay long-term, now can be a good time to buy. While prices are high, buying before interest rates rise further—or before demand spikes—can be beneficial.

What is the housing market outlook for 2025 in Vancouver?
The 2025 outlook shows modest growth with continued competition for homes in well-connected, family-friendly neighborhoods. Inventory is expected to remain low.

Why is Vancouver getting so expensive?
Vancouver’s popularity has grown due to no state income tax, proximity to Portland, outdoor amenities, and ongoing development—driving demand and prices upward.

Are home prices dropping in Vancouver, Washington?
While prices aren't dropping significantly, they’ve cooled slightly in 2024 compared to previous years, offering more negotiating power for buyers.

Is moving to Vancouver, WA a good idea?
Yes—Vancouver offers a mix of urban and suburban living, lower taxes than Oregon, and excellent access to recreation, healthcare, and education.

What is replacing Beaches in Vancouver, WA?
Beaches Restaurant closed in 2024, and a new waterfront dining concept is reportedly planned, although official announcements on the replacement are pending.

Is Vancouver in a housing crisis?
Like many growing cities, Vancouver is experiencing a housing shortage—particularly in affordable and middle-market homes—which contributes to rising costs.